The concern is not so much the Toba might erupt; rather, that Sinabung might "clear its throat" in a manner similar to Toba 72,000 years ago. Keprihatinan tidak begitu banyak Toba bisa meledak, melainkan, bahwa Sinabung mungkin "jelas tenggorokan" nya dengan cara yang mirip dengan Toba 72.000 tahun yang lalu. Given their proximity, it's not farfetched that they share other geological similarities. Dengan kedekatan mereka, tidak masuk akal bahwa mereka berbagi kesamaan geologi lainnya.
K Ver on September 7, 2010, 9:42 AM K Ver pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 09:42
The 64K question is (similar to that of Gary above): Given their proximal distance from the subduction zone and the similarities in both melt compositions and crustal material that the ascending magma must move through, do volcanoes along an ark tend to copy the others in their eruptive style? Translations from the region appear problematic, but some of the earlier posts have quoted the scientists studying Sinabung that a large amount of magma is under (or inside?) the mountain. Pertanyaan 64K adalah (mirip dengan Gary di atas): Mengingat jarak proksimal mereka dari zona subduksi dan persamaan di kedua mencair komposisi dan materi kerak bahwa mendaki magma harus bergerak melalui, lakukan gunung berapi di sepanjang sebuah bahtera cenderung salin orang lain dalam gaya erupsi mereka? Terjemahan dari daerah muncul masalah, tetapi beberapa posting sebelumnya telah dikutip para ilmuwan mempelajari Sinabung bahwa sejumlah besar magma berada di bawah (atau di dalam?) gunung. I have noticed that the fissure extending down the slopes of Sinabung has (apparently and) dramatically changed over the last week as I observe the videos coming out of the region, but I also recognize that no two reporters are standing in the same spot so the parallax is different. If I were betting on this: Toba style? Aku telah memperhatikan bahwa celah itu memperpanjang menuruni lereng Gunung Sinabung telah (dan rupanya) berubah secara dramatis selama seminggu terakhir yang saya amati video keluar dari kawasan itu, tapi saya juga mengakui bahwa tidak ada dua wartawan yang berdiri di tempat yang sama sehingga paralaks berbeda. Jika aku bertaruh pada ini: Toba gaya? .001/100 Pinatubo style? Pinatubo .001/100 gaya? 50/50? St Helens style? 50/50 Helens? St gaya? 80/20? 80/20?
Erik Klemetti on September 7, 2010, 10:10 AM Erik Klemetti pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 10:10
@Gary, KVer: I can see what you're saying, but I think, again, trying to make those connections between Toba and Sinabung are tenuous at best. @ Gary, KVer: Saya bisa melihat apa yang Anda katakan, tapi saya pikir, lagi, berusaha untuk membuat hubungan-hubungan antara Toba dan Gunung Sinabung yang paling lemah. There are a lot of factors to lead to a Toba/Taupo style eruption and to use the Ruapehu example again, the volcanoes to the south of Taupo are nothing like Taupo even though they are very close in the same arc. Ada banyak faktor untuk mengarah pada letusan / style Toba Taupo dan menggunakan contoh Ruapehu lagi, gunung berapi di selatan yang tidak seperti Taupo Taupo meskipun mereka sangat dekat pada busur yang sama. I'd be surprised to see anything like a Toba eruption from Sinabung. Aku akan terkejut melihat sesuatu seperti letusan Toba dari Sinabung.
peter m. peter m. van rooij on September 7, 2010, 10:18 AM van Rooij pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 10:18
i am guilty of Toba-mongering, but not in the sense of any new epic "boom"... i am bersalah Toba-mongering, tetapi tidak dalam arti setiap boom "epik baru" ... more in the sense that Sinabung maybe could have access to such huge magma reserves underneath it, that it can keep itself going for decades... lebih dalam arti bahwa Sinabung mungkin bisa memiliki akses ke seperti cadangan magma besar di bawahnya, yang dapat menyimpan sendiri terjadi selama puluhan tahun ... and maybe even be the cause of new/other volcanos start erupting along with it... dan bahkan mungkin menjadi penyebab dari baru / gunung berapi lainnya mulai meletus bersama dengan itu ... if this could be sustained by Toba's reserves... jika ini dapat ditopang oleh cadangan Toba's ... Sinabung could do harm to the world over decades, what Tobe did in mere seconds.... Sinabung bisa merugikan dunia selama beberapa dekade, apa Tobe lakukan di detik hanya .... // ... / / ... i know it sounds paranoid... i know it sounds paranoid ... but since Sinabung not has been regarded as active... tapi karena tidak Sinabung telah dianggap sebagai aktif ... and not much is known as a consequence... dan tidak banyak dikenal sebagai konsekuensinya ... any hypothesis about it could be a hit or a mis, as i see it. hipotesis apapun tentang hal itu bisa menjadi hit atau salah, karena saya melihatnya. and off course... dan tentu saja ... i could be terrible wrong. saya bisa saja salah mengerikan. ;-) ;-)
Erik Klemetti on September 7, 2010, 10:47 AM Klemetti Erik pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 10:47
@Peter: Again, it is unclear how interconnected and what nature is any interconnection between volcanoes is, so I'm not sure even geographic proximity would imply that Sinabung has "access" to Toba magma. @ Peter: Lagi-lagi, tidak jelas bagaimana saling berhubungan dan apa alam adalah setiap interkoneksi antara gunung berapi ini, jadi saya tidak yakin bahkan kedekatan geografis akan berarti bahwa Sinabung memiliki "akses" untuk magma Toba. The two big questions in my mind would be (1) what is the depth of the source magma for the volcanoes and (2) what state is any magma under Toba. Dua pertanyaan besar dalam benak saya akan (1) apa yang kedalaman sumber magma untuk gunung berapi dan (2) apa negara adalah setiap magma di bawah Toba. If the sources are at very different depths and if the Toba magma fairly cool/solidified, then even if they are next two, Sinabung isn't going to become a new conduit for that magma. Jika sumber berada pada kedalaman yang sangat berbeda dan jika magma Toba cukup dingin / mengeras, kemudian bahkan jika mereka adalah dua berikutnya, Sinabung tidak akan menjadi saluran baru untuk magma itu.
Dylan Ray on September 7, 2010, 10:57 AM Dylan Ray pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 10:57
Given that Sinabung is a stratovolcano without much historic record, it could go off in many different ways. Mengingat bahwa Sinabung adalah stratovolcano tanpa catatan sejarah banyak, itu bisa pergi dengan berbagai cara. But considering how often stratovolcanoes erupt without going off (for lack of better terms) like supervolcano mode, the most I'd expect would be, at its worst case scenario, something Pinatubo-ish. Tapi mengingat seberapa sering stratovolcanoes meletus tanpa pergi (karena kurangnya istilah yang lebih baik) seperti modus super, yang paling aku harapkan akan, pada skenario kasus terburuk, sesuatu-ish Pinatubo. Eruptions are random. Letusan yang acak. My opinion: Mother Nature doesn't care about what "normally happens" and sometimes does just whatever it needs / wants to do and stuff anyone or anything in it's way. Pendapat saya: Ibu Alam tidak peduli tentang apa yang "biasanya terjadi" dan kadang-kadang tidak hanya apa saja yang perlu / ingin lakukan dan barang siapa pun atau apa pun di dalamnya cara.
Jeb on September 7, 2010, 11:27 AM Jeb pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 11:27
If you look at this picture from nasa. Jika Anda melihat gambar ini dari nasa. The part of the eurasian plate that Sumatra resides on is moving to the east, or even slightly south east, while getting sqeezed from the other plates. Bagian dari lempeng Eurasia yang berada di Sumatra bergerak ke timur, atau bahkan sedikit tenggara, sementara mendapatkan sqeezed dari lempeng lainnya. Is it possible that magma that once fed Toba could "pop out" further north/northwest? Apakah mungkin bahwa magma yang Toba sekali makan bisa "pop out" ke arah utara / barat?
peter m. peter m. van rooij on September 7, 2010, 11:45 AM van Rooij pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 11:45
@ Erik: i totally agree with your questions. @ Erik: saya setuju dengan pertanyaan Anda. they are spot on... mereka tempat di ... but i notice you also wrote a very crucial word in your post... tetapi saya melihat Anda juga menulis kata yang sangat penting dalam posting Anda ... it is indeed unclear how interconnected the system around Toba an Sinabung is... memang tidak jelas bagaimana sistem interkoneksi di sekitar Toba suatu Sinabung adalah ... and that alone should warrant any scientific concern and hypothesizing about worst case scenarios, so no one gets caught with their pants down one day... dan itu saja harus menjamin setiap kepedulian ilmiah dan hipotesa tentang skenario kasus terburuk, sehingga tidak ada yang tertangkap dengan celana mereka di suatu hari ... only this can guarantee that the science necessary to get the correct answers on the right questions, is, and will be done by someone, somewhere... hanya ini dapat menjamin bahwa ilmu yang diperlukan untuk mendapatkan jawaban yang benar pada pertanyaan yang tepat, adalah, dan akan dilakukan oleh seseorang, di suatu tempat ... preferably asap. sebaiknya sesegera mungkin. (i know this much easier said than done though...) (Saya tahu ini jauh lebih mudah diucapkan daripada dilakukan meskipun ...)
Erik Klemetti on September 7, 2010, 11:49 AM Klemetti Erik pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 11:49
@Peter: The biggest obstacle to getting a study like that done quickly is money! @ Peter: Hambatan terbesar untuk mendapatkan belajar seperti yang dilakukan dengan cepat adalah uang! Unless someone like the USGS takes a study like that on, it can take us academics 3-5 years to get funding for such a project via NSF (and they can be costly projects). Kecuali orang seperti USGS mengambil studi seperti itu, itu bisa membawa kita akademisi 3-5 tahun untuk mendapatkan pendanaan untuk proyek tersebut melalui NSF (dan mereka dapat proyek mahal). Thats the unfortunate nature of scientific inquiry these days when we depend on outside sources of funding. Thats sifat penelitian ilmiah malang hari ini ketika kita bergantung pada sumber luar pendanaan.
K Ver on September 7, 2010, 12:05 PM K Ver pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 12:05
Great discussion everybody, just like the old Eruptions site. Great diskusi semua orang, seperti situs Letusan tua. I don't want to be a Toba mongerer, I am just curious about the nature of volcanoes in the same arc. Aku tidak ingin menjadi mongerer Toba, saya hanya ingin tahu tentang sifat gunung api di busur yang sama. All that said Toba had 100's or even 1000's of eruptions prior to the big one that just about ended homo sapiens. Semua yang mengatakan Toba memiliki 100, atau bahkan 1000 dari letusan sebelum besar bahwa hampir berakhir homo sapiens. I don't think Sinabung can tap magma from Toba at all, it's just that everything else is so similar. Saya tidak berpikir Sinabung dapat menekan magma dari Toba sama sekali, hanya saja semuanya sangat mirip.
Yevgeniy Skrypnyk on September 7, 2010, 12:14 PM Yevgeniy Skrypnyk pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 12:14
Just a little bit of common sence: 77 000 years passed from the last Toba eruption. Hanya sedikit akal sehat: 77 000 tahun berlalu dari letusan Toba terakhir. During these years Sinabung and other close volcanoes were erupting a lot of times. Selama tahun ini gunung berapi Sinabung dan dekat lainnya meletus banyak kali. None of these eruptions have triggered Toba eruption. Tidak ada letusan ini telah memicu letusan Toba. Common sence is asking: what makes present Sinabung eruption specifically triggering for Toba? Before the last Toba eruption previous ones happened 700 000 years ago and 840 000 years ago. Akal sehat adalah bertanya: apa yang membuat Sinabung ini memicu letusan khusus untuk Toba? Sebelum terakhir sebelumnya letusan Toba yang terjadi 000 tahun lalu 700 dan 840 000 tahun yang lalu. Toba do not erupt too frequently, least known interval is around 140 000 years. Toba meletus tidak terlalu sering, paling tidak dikenal interval adalah sekitar 140 000 tahun. So more interval - so bigger explosion will follow. ledakan Jadi lebih interval - jadi lebih besar akan mengikuti. First approximation gives prognosis, that even being triggered (if it possible at all) Toba now can produce not more, that 10% of the last show, which humanity can state, I guess. It looks like we have some time before the next Toba event, not too much, but around 60 - 70 thousand years. But it would be very nice of indonesian volcanologists to install tremor, GPS position, ... Pertama pendekatan memberikan prognosis, yang dipicu bahkan (jika mungkin sama sekali) Toba sekarang dapat menghasilkan tidak lebih, bahwa 10% dari pertunjukan terakhir, yang dapat menyatakan kemanusiaan, kurasa. Sepertinya kita memiliki beberapa waktu sebelum Toba berikutnya acara, tidak terlalu banyak, tapi sekitar 6-70 tahun. Tapi akan sangat bagus volcanologists indonesia untuk menginstal gemetaran, posisi GPS, ... , monitoring on the top of Samosir and make this monitoring data accessible for public, like Iceland data are accessible. , Pemantauan di atas Samosir dan membuat data pemantauan ini dapat diakses untuk umum, seperti Islandia data dapat diakses.
Erik Klemetti on September 7, 2010, 12:16 PM Erik Klemetti pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 12:16
@KVer: I think part of this is that human's are very good (too good?) at finding "patterns" in noise. @ KVer: Saya kira bagian dari ini adalah bahwa manusia sangat baik (terlalu baik) dalam menemukan "pola" dalam kebisingan?. Although there might be a general similarities between Sinabung and Toba, there are likely just as many differences that make the difference between a Toba-style event and a middling St. Helens. Meskipun mungkin ada kesamaan umum antara Gunung Sinabung dan Toba, ada kemungkinan seperti banyak perbedaan yang membuat perbedaan antara peristiwa Toba-gaya dan lumayan St Helens.
Henrik Le Bon on September 7, 2010, 12:26 PM Henrik Le Bon pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 12:26
Adding my tuppence - Dr Boris Behncke has repeatedly illustrated the question of geographic proximity by referring to Etna, which has erupted different magmas, sometimes simultaneously, from craters separated by no more than a hundred meters or so. Menambahkan Tuppence saya - Dr Boris Behncke telah berulang kali menggambarkan masalah kedekatan geografis dengan mengacu pada Etna, yang meletus magma yang berbeda, kadang-kadang secara bersamaan, dari kawah dipisahkan dengan tidak lebih dari seratus meter atau lebih. Ie the proximity to Toba is of little or no importance. Yaitu dekat dengan Toba adalah penting sedikit atau tidak ada. // Second obsrvation - if Gunung Sinabung was to undergo a very large eruption, there would be evidence of ground deformation on the order of tens of metres. / / Obsrvation Kedua - jika Gunung Sinabung adalah untuk menjalani letusan sangat besar, akan ada bukti deformasi tanah atas perintah puluhan meter. Compare with Campi Flegrei, which in spite of a fluctuation of some 10 m (Pozzuoli) over the past milennia has only had one "mild" eruption (Monte Nuovo 1538)! Bandingkan dengan Campi Flegrei, yang meskipun fluktuasi sekitar 10 m (Pozzuoli) selama ribuan tahun terakhir hanya punya satu "ringan" letusan (Monte Nuovo 1538)! // Third observation - the physical appearance of Sinabung is that of a volcano which emits andesitic-dacitic magmas in very thick flows. / / Observasi Ketiga - penampilan fisik Sinabung adalah sebuah gunung berapi yang mengeluarkan magma andesit-dasit dalam arus yang sangat tebal. If visual appearance is anything to go by, Sinabung does not erupt explosively as a rule. Jika tampilan visual adalah sesuatu untuk naik, Sinabung meletus tidak eksplosif seperti biasanya. If we, as volcanophiles, are lucky, we might witness such a coulée(?) eruption. Jika kita, sebagai volcanophiles, beruntung, kita mungkin saksi tersebut Coulee (?) Letusan.
peter m. peter m. van rooij on September 7, 2010, 12:39 PM van Rooij pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 12:39
the only info i have ever stumbled upon regarding the magma chambers beneath Toba, come for a National Geographic documentary called "Stone Age Apocalypse" i saw on YouTube some time ago. hanya info yang pernah saya stumbled atas tentang kamar magma di bawah Toba, datang untuk sebuah film dokumenter National Geographic disebut "Zaman Batu Apocalypse" saya melihat di YouTube beberapa waktu lalu. it is available in 5 parts. ini tersedia dalam 5 bagian. the last part ( "Stone Age Apocalypse - pt5of5" ) shows @ 1:50-2:04 a 3D model of the system beneath Toba... bagian terakhir ( "Zaman Batu Wahyu - pt5of5" ) @ 1:50-2:04 menunjukkan model 3D dari sistem di bawah Toba ... it also clearly shows that a huge chamber is beneath the NORTH part of Lake Toba... itu juga jelas menunjukkan bahwa sebuah ruang besar adalah di bawah bagian UTARA Danau Toba ... under what once was the MTT... di bawah apa yang pernah adalah MTT ... and that occurred 500kya... dan yang terjadi 500kya ... currently 30 km from Sinabung... Saat ini 30 km dari Gunung Sinabung ... IF this model is correct (and why shouldn't be)... JIKA model ini adalah benar (dan mengapa tidak boleh) ... and it is shown as it was nearly a decade ago (2001)... dan ditampilkan seperti yang hampir satu dekade yang lalu (2001) ... then how does it look now? lalu bagaimana bisa melihat sekarang? and is there a connection between anything down there?... dan apakah ada hubungan antara apa-apa di sana? ... there isn't any visual connection to be seen with YTT and MTT on this model... tidak ada koneksi visual untuk dilihat dengan YTT dan MTT pada model ini ... but that doesn't mean it isn't there... tapi itu tidak berarti itu tidak ada ... maybe just lack of data or not sufficient data. mungkin hanya kurangnya data atau tidak data yang memadai. // i took some screenshot from youtube and uploaded them here: ... / / I mengambil beberapa screenshot dari youtube dan upload di sini: ... // ... http://imgur.com/AhPsa.png ... / / ... http://imgur.com/AhPsa.png ... // ... http://imgur.com/8dqZ8.png ... / / ... http://imgur.com/8dqZ8.png ... // ... http://imgur.com/Tob6F.png ... / / ... http://imgur.com/Tob6F.png ... // ... http://imgur.com/B5nB7.png / / ... http://imgur.com/B5nB7.png
Erik Klemetti on September 7, 2010, 12:43 PM Erik Klemetti pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 12:43
@ Peter (and all): One paper that looks at how magma accumulates under Toba (maybe I can coax Jorge into a Q&A about Toba here on the blog). Vazquez and Reid, 2004, " Probing the Accumulation History of the Voluminous Toba Magma " in Science v305, no.5686, p991-994 @ Peter (dan semua): Satu kertas yang terlihat di bagaimana magma yang terakumulasi di bawah Toba (mungkin aku bisa membujuk Jorge ke Q & A tentang Toba di blog) dan. Vazquez Reid, 2004, " Menyelidiki Sejarah Akumulasi dari produktif Toba Magma "Ilmu v305, p991-994 no.5686
peter m. peter m. van rooij on September 7, 2010, 12:47 PM van Rooij pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 12:47
@ Erik: interesting! @ Erik: menarik! thnx for the link! thnx untuk link! it also would be very interesting if you could get such a Q&A going... juga akan sangat menarik jika Anda bisa mendapatkan seperti Q & A akan ...
peter m. peter m. van rooij on September 7, 2010, 1:09 PM van Rooij pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 13:09
@ Henrik: "if Gunung Sinabung was to undergo a very large eruption, there would be evidence of ground deformation on the order of tens of metres. " ... @ Henrik: "jika Gunung Sinabung adalah untuk menjalani letusan sangat besar, akan ada bukti deformasi tanah atas perintah puluhan meter." ... // ... / / ... that is correct... yang benar ... BUT ... NAMUN ... since Gunung Sinabung wasn't/isn't monitored sufficient (or at all!)... Gunung Sinabung karena tidak / tidak dimonitor cukup (atau sama sekali !)... how would one know how much deformation actually has occured over the last months/years? bagaimana satu tahu berapa banyak deformasi sebenarnya telah terjadi selama bulan terakhir / tahun?
Daniel_swe on September 7, 2010, 1:15 PM Daniel_swe pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 01:15
@ Peter, Erik and all... I personally think it is very good that different views, opinions and such gets brought out. And when it comes to a partially unknown volcano such as Sinabung I dont think "mongering" is the correct phrase peter. @ Petrus, Erik dan semua ... saya pribadi pikir itu sangat baik bahwa pandangan yang berbeda, pendapat dan seperti akan dibawa keluar. Dan ketika datang ke gunung berapi yang tidak diketahui sebagian seperti Sinabung I dont think "mongering" adalah frase yang benar peter . I would call it "Challenging the known" as no one knows for sure what is going on beneath. Aku akan menyebutnya "Menantang yang dikenal" sebagai salah satu ada yang tahu pasti apa yang sedang terjadi di bawahnya. And this is a good thing in my humble opinion! Dan ini adalah hal yang baik menurut pendapat rendah hati saya! How do we learn and how do we form new theories? Bagaimana kita belajar dan bagaimana kita membentuk teori-teori baru? We challenge what we know and "attack" it from different angles. I really like the way people throws out new questions, ideas and (sometimes) wild theories on this forum. Kami menantang apa yang kita tahu dan "menyerang" dari sudut yang berbeda. Saya sangat suka cara orang-orang melempar keluar pertanyaan baru, ide-ide dan (kadang) teori liar pada forum ini. One of them might be spot on and keeping quiet doesnt help any one. Salah satunya mungkin tempat dan tetap tenang doesnt membantu salah satu. There is a saying in sweden: "There are no stupid questions, just stupid answers" so with this in mind I would like to thank all the people on this blog who post their theories, questions and so on as well as Erik, Boris, Jon and all who gives good, precise and clear answers... Ada pepatah di Swedia: "Tidak ada pertanyaan bodoh, hanya jawaban bodoh" sehingga dengan pemikiran ini saya ingin mengucapkan terima kasih kepada semua orang di blog ini yang posting teori mereka, pertanyaan dan sebagainya serta Erik, Boris, Jon dan semua orang yang memberikan baik, tepat dan jelas jawaban ...
Passerby on September 7, 2010, 1:18 PM Pejalan kaki pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 13:18
Toba erupted 70 KYA. 70 Kya Toba meletus. If you look at the temperature record trend ------- en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EPICA_temperature_plot.svg --- you see a large shoulder of warming in a long period of hemispheric ice sheet cooling. Jika Anda melihat tren catatan suhu ------- en.wikipedia.org / wiki / File: EPICA_temperature_plot.svg --- Anda melihat bahu besar pemanasan dalam jangka panjang pendinginan lapisan es cembung. These icecaps decreased ocean depths and changed global climate patterns - two likely drivers of lithospheric instability, most notably at the equator, in subduction zones and nearby volcanic arcs. Icecaps ini menurun kedalaman laut dan mengubah pola iklim global - dua driver kemungkinan ketidakstabilan litosfer, terutama di khatulistiwa, di zona subduksi dan busur vulkanik di dekatnya. ------- Toba probably straddled a major offshore fault system (Investigator Fault Zone, IFZ) being subducted under Sumatra at the time of cataclysmic eruption. ------- Toba mungkin duduk suatu sistem sesar utama lepas pantai (Pemeriksa Zona Sesar, IFZ) yang subduksi di bawah Sumatera pada saat letusan dahsyat. Noting the general trend of Plate movement, we can guess that the feeder faults moving magma from the Great Sumatran Fault to the area under Toba has migrated northwards, leaving the main crater behind and forming smaller cones, one of which may have erupted several hundred years ago, during a brief warming period in the LIA. Memperhatikan kecenderungan umum gerakan Plate, kita bisa menebak bahwa kesalahan feeder bergerak magma dari Agung Sesar Sumatra ke daerah di bawah Toba telah bermigrasi ke utara, meninggalkan kawah utama di belakang dan membentuk kerucut yang lebih kecil, salah satu yang mungkin telah meletus beberapa ratus tahun lalu, selama periode pemanasan singkat di LIA. ----- A minor component of the IFZ may be feeding magma under Singabung and adjacent volcanoes, but there seems to be little evidence of major eruption potential at Toba. ----- Sebuah komponen kecil dari IFZ mungkin makan magma di bawah gunung berapi Singabung dan sekitarnya, tapi sepertinya ada sedikit bukti potensi letusan besar di Toba. Furthermore, given the size of Singabung and neighboring volcanoes, it's unlikely that they will produce a very large eruption (VEI larger than 6). Selanjutnya, mengingat ukuran Singabung dan gunung berapi tetangga, tak mungkin bahwa mereka akan menghasilkan letusan yang sangat besar (VEI lebih besar dari 6). -------- What we may be seeing is enhanced mantle upwelling, driven in part by climate changes and a brief recent cooling period that has affected ocean surface temperatures and rainfall across Asia and into the mid-Pacific. -------- Apa yang kita dapat ditingkatkan upwelling melihat jubah, didorong sebagian oleh perubahan iklim dan masa pendinginan singkat baru-baru ini yang telah mempengaruhi suhu permukaan laut dan curah hujan di Asia dan ke Pasifik. It's likely to be affecting lithospheric stress along the mid-ocean ridges and subduction zones, like Australian plate boundary. Ini mungkin mempengaruhi stres litosfer di sepanjang punggung pertengahan laut dan zona subduksi, seperti batas lempeng Australia. I suspect we're seeing this effect from New Zealand to the Andaman Islands, north of Sumatra. Saya menduga kita melihat efek dari Selandia Baru ke Kepulauan Andaman, Sumatra utara. And also, in Iceland. Dan juga, di Islandia. It might explain the 'uptick' in geothermal activity noted in the past few years, in particular this last year. Mungkin menjelaskan uptick '' dalam kegiatan panas bumi dicatat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, khususnya tahun terakhir ini.
Gary B Townsend on September 7, 2010, 1:20 PM Gary B Townsend pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 13:20
It's unlikely, of course, that we will see a Toba-like VEI 8++ eruption in our lifetimes, but something comparable is still likely in humanity's future. Ini tidak mungkin, tentu saja, bahwa kita akan melihat letusan 8 + + Toba-seperti VEI dalam kehidupan kita, tetapi sesuatu yang sebanding masih kemungkinan di masa depan manusia. Sinabung seems quite capable of making a mess, based on the manner in which it's developing. Sinabung tampaknya cukup mampu membuat berantakan, berdasarkan cara yang sedang berkembang. It's big; it has provenance, too. Ini besar; itu provenan juga. If not Toba, maybe the smaller Tamburo? Jika tidak Toba, mungkin Tamburo lebih kecil? Or the relatively pint-sized Krakatau? Atau Krakatau yang relatif berukuran pint?
Daniel_swe on September 7, 2010, 1:21 PM Daniel_swe pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 13:21
As for funding...Doesnt governments know that its in their best interest to fund research about Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes and so on..Research which could save thousands of lives? The question was rethorical since I know that it is the big business which controls society..Unfortunately. untuk pendanaan ... Doesnt pemerintah Seperti tahu bahwa dalam kepentingan terbaik mereka untuk mendanai penelitian tentang Gempa bumi, Gunung berapi, badai dan sebagainya .. penelitian yang dapat menyelamatkan ribuan nyawa? Pertanyaannya adalah rethorical karena saya tahu bahwa itu adalah bisnis besar yang mengendalikan .. Sayangnya masyarakat.
peter m. peter m. van rooij on September 7, 2010, 1:26 PM van Rooij pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 01:26
@ ERIK KLEMETTI on September 7, 2010, 11:49 AM: i know that funding always is a big problem in science... @ ERIK KLEMETTI pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 11:49: saya tahu dana yang selalu merupakan masalah besar dalam ilmu pengetahuan ... maybe a "doomsday scenario" would be a good argument to get the funding rolling... mungkin skenario hari kiamat "" akan menjadi argumen yang baik untuk mendapatkan dana bergulir ... the tabloids love that kind of stories........ tabloid cinta yang jenis cerita ........ ;-) ... ;-) ... // ... / / ... @ DANIEL_SWE on September 7, 2010, 1:15 PM: i second your post... DANIEL_SWE @ pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 13:15: i posting kedua Anda ... and can add that the saying goes here in denmark too... dan dapat menambahkan bahwa pepatah di denmark juga ...
Daniel_swe on September 7, 2010, 1:29 PM Daniel_swe pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 01:29
@Gary...I think many people say "Its unlikely" too often. @ Gary ... Saya rasa banyak orang berkata "Ini tidak mungkin" terlalu sering. It makes people relax. Hal ini membuat orang rileks. I do not mean that people should be on their toes 24/7 but to recognize that it is not impossible that a big event can happen. Saya tidak berarti bahwa orang harus berada di jari kaki mereka 24 / 7 namun untuk mengakui bahwa itu adalah tidak mustahil bahwa suatu peristiwa besar bisa terjadi. Our dear planet is alive and I can bet anything that an event like Toba or Huckleberry ridge WILL happen again. Sayang planet kami adalah hidup dan saya bisa bertaruh apa saja bahwa peristiwa seperti Toba atau punggungan Huckleberry AKAN terjadi lagi. Its just a matter of time. Its hanya soal waktu. If it is in our lifetime or not is still to be decided by our beloved mother earth. I have a daughter who is 4 years old and because of this I would not want anything to happen to her either in her lifetime. Jika dalam hidup kita atau tidak masih akan diputuskan oleh bumi ibu kita tercinta. Aku punya anak yang 4 tahun dan karena itu aku tidak ingin sesuatu terjadi pada dirinya baik dalam hidupnya. As she would not want anything to happen to her future children.. Saat ia tidak ingin sesuatu terjadi pada anak-anak masa depannya .. This is why funding is so important in my opinion. Inilah sebabnya mengapa dana ini sangat penting menurut saya. Funding for research which is important...Not if cows fart too much or such research... Pendanaan untuk penelitian yang penting ... Tidak, kalau sapi kentut terlalu banyak atau penelitian tersebut ...
Daniel_swe on September 7, 2010, 1:34 PM Daniel_swe pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 13:34
Ops forgot to mention the Siberian Traps..As far as i know it erupted during a period of 1My...Compare this with our recent Eyafjalla eruption. Ops lupa lagi .. Siberia Perangkap Sejauh yang saya tahu itu meletus selama periode 1My ... Bandingkan ini dengan letusan terakhir Eyafjalla kami. ;) ;)
Daniel_swe on September 7, 2010, 1:36 PM Daniel_swe pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 13:36
Correction to my "September 7, 2010, 1:29 PM" post...I said I do not mean that people should be on their toes 24/7 but to recognize that it is not impossible that a big event can happen Of course i meant to say "I do not mean that people should be on their toes 24/7 but to recognize that it is possible that a big event can happen" Koreksi untuk saya "September 7, 2010, 13:29" posting ... aku bilang, aku tidak berarti bahwa orang harus berada di jari kaki mereka 24 / 7 namun untuk mengakui bahwa itu adalah tidak mustahil bahwa suatu peristiwa besar bisa terjadi Tentu saja saya bermaksud mengatakan "Saya tidak berarti bahwa orang harus pada kaki mereka 24 / 7 namun untuk mengakui bahwa ada kemungkinan bahwa suatu peristiwa besar bisa terjadi"
Chris Maginnis on September 7, 2010, 1:51 PM Chris Maginnis pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 13:51
My guess looking at sinabung is a vei 4 with the possible danger of a lateral pelean type blast from the valley that can be seen on the side of the volcano. Dugaan saya melihat Gunung Sinabung adalah 4 VEI dengan kemungkinan bahaya ledakan jenis pelean lateral dari lembah yang dapat dilihat di sisi gunung berapi.
Henrik Le Bon on September 7, 2010, 1:59 PM Henrik Le Bon pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 01:59
Passerby, looking at the maps Peter (M van Rooij) linked in one of the first Sinabung topics, Toba seems to lie almost etirely on the plate east of the CSF (Central Sumatra Fault) which is moving south at a speed of 2.7 cm per year or appx 1.998 km over the past 74,000 years. Seseorang yang lewat, melihat peta Peter (M van Rooij) terkait di salah satu topik yang pertama Gunung Sinabung, Toba tampaknya terletak hampir etirely di piring timur CSF (Central Sumatera Fault) yang bergerak ke selatan dengan kecepatan 2,7 cm per tahun atau appx 1,998 km selama 74.000 tahun terakhir. From reading articles, it seems Sinabung is located inside a different, and much smaller caldera (the name of which currently escapes me - Tengger?). Dari artikel membaca, tampaknya Sinabung terletak di dalam yang berbeda, dan kaldera yang jauh lebih kecil (nama yang saat ini luput saya - Tengger?).
David Snow on September 7, 2010, 3:40 PM David Salju pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 03:40
This is the conversation I was looking for. Ini adalah percakapan saya cari. Thank you Erik. Terima kasih Erik.
David Snow on September 7, 2010, 3:42 PM David Salju pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 03:42
Hey, someone fly over there and set up web cam. Hei, orang terbang ke sana dan mengatur web cam.
mike don on September 7, 2010, 4:29 PM mike don pada tanggal 7 September 2010, 04:29
Now, I don't know any more than anyone else what Sinabung might do, but it's always worth remembering the adage that, in volcanology, "the past is the key to the present". Sekarang, saya tidak tahu apapun lebih dari orang lain apa yang mungkin dilakukan Sinabung, tapi selalu diingat pepatah yang, di vulkanologi, "adalah masa lalu kunci ke" sekarang. That is, unless there is good evidence to the contrary, the best probability is activity not unlike previous behaviour. Artinya, kecuali ada bukti yang baik untuk sebaliknya, kemungkinan terbaik adalah kegiatan tidak seperti perilaku sebelumnya. And for Sinabung its history shows that much of its past activity has produced significant lava flows (such that the GVP profile specifically mentions them) with the active centre shifting over time..I'm not sure where the present upper-flank crater is, but I'd suspect that it continues the previous trend -anybody know its location? Both Krakatau and Tambora already had 'form' for major caldera-forming eruptions before their historic blasts: Pinatubo was found to have a past record of seriously major explosive eruptions Sinabung apparently has a record of more conventional eruptions with lava flows. Dan untuk Sinabung sejarah menunjukkan bahwa banyak kegiatan masa lalu telah menghasilkan aliran lava yang signifikan (seperti bahwa profil GVP spesifik menyebut mereka) dengan pusat aktif pergeseran dari waktu ke waktu .. aku tidak yakin di mana kawah sisi atas saat ini, tapi aku menduga bahwa ia melanjutkan tren siapa pun sebelumnya-tahu lokasinya? Baik Krakatau dan Tambora sudah punya 'bentuk' untuk letusan utama yang membentuk kaldera sebelum ledakan bersejarah mereka: Pinatubo ternyata memiliki catatan masa lalu serius letusan ledakan besar Sinabung ternyata memiliki catatan letusan konvensional lebih banyak dengan aliran lava. I'm not saying that it won't go off with a very big bang, -or that it won't have a flank collapse and debris avalanche which would be a slightly higher probability- but maybe what we are seeing is the start of a long period of activity from the latest vent at the 'business end' of the Sinabung complex Saya tidak mengatakan bahwa hal itu tidak akan pergi dengan suara yang sangat besar, atau bahwa ia tidak akan memiliki sayap runtuh dan puing-puing longsoran salju yang akan menjadi sedikit lebih tinggi probabilitas-tapi mungkin yang kita lihat adalah awal dari jangka panjang aktivitas dari lubang terbaru pada akhir bisnis 'dari kompleks Gunung Sinabung
Erik Klemetti on September 7, 2010, 4:46 PM Erik Klemetti pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 04:46
@Mike Don: Thanks ... Don @ Mike: Terima kasih ... you nailed it better than I did! Anda terpaku lebih baik daripada aku!
Renato Rio on September 7, 2010, 5:08 PM Renato Rio pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 17:08
Hi there. Hi there. Just coming back from a long holiday and missed the interesting discussion.// Thanks for all posts, comments and links. Baru saja kembali dari libur panjang dan merindukan diskusi yang menarik. / / Terima kasih untuk semua posting, komentar dan link. // The volcanic arc at this region shows many interesting oddities. / / The busur vulkanik di wilayah ini menunjukkan keanehan menarik. Like the presence of the Toba caldera, SW of Sinabung, and Kembar andesitic-shield volcano (GVP) to the NW, as well as all volcanic fields in between. Seperti kehadiran kaldera Toba, SW Sinabung, dan Gunung Kembar andesitik-perisai (GVP) ke NW, serta semua bidang vulkanik di antaranya. - Are they related? - Apakah mereka berhubungan? Not likely. Tidak mungkin. But I wished we could have as much information about them as we have from Yellowstone and Long Valley or Etna. Tapi aku berharap kami bisa memiliki informasi banyak tentang mereka seperti yang telah kita dari Yellowstone dan Long Valley atau Etna. As for funding, totally agree with what has been said by Peter and al. Adapun pendanaan, sepenuhnya setuju dengan apa yang telah dikatakan oleh Peter dan al. After all, this is a major volcanic area that has already shown its degree of instability and high risk in the past. Bagaimanapun, ini adalah area vulkanik besar yang telah menunjukkan derajat ketidakstabilan dan risiko tinggi di masa lalu.
Renato Rio on September 7, 2010, 8:14 PM Renato Rio pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 08:14
I was just checking on USGS data on April's North Sumatran EQ and found that, though it was poorly felt all over the northern half of Sumatra (but for Padang), it was intensely felt (VI) at Kabanjahe, only 7 km SE of Sinabung. Saya hanya mengecek pada data USGS pada April Sumatera Utara EQ dan menemukan bahwa, meskipun buruk merasa seluruh bagian utara Sumatera (namun untuk Padang), itu sangat terasa (VI) di Kabanjahe, hanya 7 km tenggara Sinabung . (Check"Did you feel it?" map at USGS site). (Periksa "Apakah Anda merasa itu?" Peta di situs USGS). Could it be due just because Kabanjahe is located at a higher elevation (1200 m - Padang, though, is at sea level) or should there be further ground for speculation here? ---------------------------------------------------------7.8 -Tuesday, April 06, 2010 at 22:15:02 UTC - Depth 31 km (19.3 miles) - NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA - Distances 215 km (135 miles) SW of Medan, Sumatra, Indonesia ...................................................................................... Mungkinkah karena hanya karena Kabanjahe terletak pada ketinggian yang lebih tinggi (1200 m - Padang, meskipun, adalah pada permukaan laut) atau harus ada tanah lebih lanjut untuk spekulasi di sini? -------------- ------------------------------------------- 7,8-Selasa, April 6, 2010 di 22:15:02 UTC - Kedalaman 31 km (19,3 mil) - Sumatera Utara, INDONESIA - Jarak 215 km (135 mil) SW Medan, Sumatera, Indonesia .............. .................................................. ...................... http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/us/2010utc5/us/index.html http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/dyfi/events/us/2010utc5/us/index.html
William M Boston on September 7, 2010, 11:53 PM William M Boston pada tanggal 7 September 2010,, 23:53
Hint: To log in without losing the page you are on, just right-click on "login" link at bottom of that page, then "open in new tab," then login on the login page which is at the new tab, then go back to prior tab and just refresh that page, and you are then logged in on that original page you were on. Petunjuk: Untuk masuk log tanpa kehilangan pada halaman Anda berada di, hanya klik-kanan pada "login" link di bawah halaman itu, maka "terbuka di tab baru," kemudian login pada halaman login, yang berada pada tab baru, kemudian kembali ke tab sebelumnya dan hanya me-refresh halaman tersebut, dan Anda kemudian login pada halaman awal Anda pada. //////// Cludgey and unelegant, but .... //////// Cludgey dan unelegant, tapi ....
Jeb on September 8, 2010, 1:56 AM Jeb pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 01:56
@William M Boston I allways log in and hit Alt+Left arrow, two times. As Erik wrote above, we're very good att seeing patterns, even if there aren't any. @ William M Boston Aku allways login dan tekan Alt + panah kiri, dua kali. Seperti Erik menulis di atas, kita baik att sangat melihat pola, bahkan jika tidak ada. Still, we need a five year old to tell us the obvious truth sometimes. Namun, kita membutuhkan lima tahun tua untuk memberitahu kami jelas kebenaran kadang-kadang. ;) Show a kid the globe, they will almost allways say that, Africa and South America looks like they fit together. ;) Tampilkan anak dunia, mereka akan hampir allways mengatakan bahwa, Afrika dan Amerika Selatan Sepertinya mereka cocok bersama. The big problem is explaining why... Masalah besar adalah menjelaskan mengapa ... Regarding volcanoes and earthquakes, we are looking at the results of previous events and trying to map ourselves backwards in an attempt to predict how the future events will occur. That's not a simple observation. So, we might have to back off a bit, raise our heads and try to look at other things? gunung berapi Mengenai dan gempa bumi, kita melihat hasil dari peristiwa sebelumnya dan mencoba untuk memetakan diri kita mundur dalam upaya untuk memprediksi bagaimana peristiwa masa depan akan terjadi.. Itu tidak sederhana observasi Jadi, kami mungkin harus mundur sedikit, meningkatkan kepala kami dan mencoba untuk melihat hal-hal lain? Crazy, stupid or childish... Gila, bodoh atau kekanak-kanakan ... One is, that we do know that some animals react very strange preceding an eartquake. Salah satunya adalah, bahwa kita tahu bahwa beberapa hewan bereaksi sangat aneh sebuah gempa sebelumnya. And that's a simple observation. How much research has gone into that? Dan itu pengamatan sederhana. Berapa banyak penelitian telah pergi ke itu? I don't know. Saya tidak tahu. They obvioulsy feel, and can predict something that we can't. Mereka obvioulsy merasa, dan dapat memprediksi sesuatu yang kita tidak bisa. Just imagine, if we could find, understand, replicate, and maybe even enhance their abilities? Bayangkan saja, jika kita bisa menemukan, memahami, replikasi, dan mungkin bahkan meningkatkan kemampuan mereka? That would be a WOW! Itu akan menjadi WOW!
Raving on September 8, 2010, 2:27 AM Raving pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 02:27
For those who are amused by such things, here are the Paddy Power Odds for the next VEI > 3.0 eruption. Seulawah Agam is the current fave at 5/4. Bagi mereka yang senang dengan hal-hal seperti itu, di sini adalah Paddy Power Mustahil untuk VEI berikutnya> 3,0 letusan Agam. Seulawah adalah fave saat ini sebesar 5 / 4.
Lurking on September 8, 2010, 2:51 AM Mengintai pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 02:51
I'm tired. Aku lelah. I'm also miffed. Aku juga jengkel. As I've mentioned, I can't find any decent quake lists that go down into the ≈Mag 1.0 range for this system. Seperti yang saya sebutkan, saya tidak dapat menemukan daftar gempa yang layak yang turun ke kisaran 1,0 Mag ≈ untuk sistem ini. I was able to get some rather nice topology though. Saya bisa mendapatkan beberapa topologi yang agak bagus meskipun. Mainly spurred on by mention of other large caldera structures from some one's previous post. Terutama didorong oleh lain menyebutkan struktur kaldera besar dari posting sebelumnya ada seseorang. (Right now I'm too lazy to poke around to find out who you are, but thanks. ) Also, there was mention of what appears to be a caldera like structure that Sinabung seemed to be a part of. (Saat ini aku terlalu malas untuk melihat-lihat untuk mengetahui siapa Anda, tapi terima kasih.) Juga, ada lagi yang tampaknya menjadi kaldera seperti struktur yang Sinabung tampaknya menjadi bagian dari. I just had to for something like that. Aku hanya harus untuk sesuatu seperti itu. I can't state one way or the other, but the graph renders pretty well. Saya tidak dapat menyatakan satu atau yang lain, tetapi menyajikan grafik cukup baik. Sure, it's not Google Earth, and you can probably get a decent view with that, but here ya go, the Sinabung/Toba area, no quakes though... Tentu, ini bukan Google Earth, dan Anda mungkin bisa mendapatkan tampilan yang layak dengan itu, tapi di sini ya pergi, Sinabung / Toba daerah, meskipun tidak ada gempa ... just terrain. The Plot . hanya daerah. The Plot . (SRTM data source CGIAR-CSI ) (Sumber data SRTM CGIAR-CSI )
Les Francis on September 8, 2010, 3:36 AM Francis Les pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 03:36
There has been no significant ground deformation around Sinabung. Belum ada deformasi tanah yang signifikan di sekitar Gunung Sinabung. There are more than 30,000 people living within 6 kilometers of the cone and they would have noticed. Ada lebih dari 30.000 orang yang tinggal dalam waktu 6 kilometer kerucut dan mereka akan menyadari. The area is extensively cultivated. Daerah ini luas dibudidayakan. The Indonesian VSI were notified of volcanic tremor by the local farmers around living around the cone. Singkut Caldera is located less than 10 kms from Sinabung. Para VSI Indonesia telah diberitahu dari tremor vulkanik oleh petani lokal di sekitar hidup di sekitar kerucut Kaldera. Singkut terletak kurang dari 10 km dari Gunung Sinabung. Sibayak sits on the edge of the caldera rim. Singkut has had very little geographical study. Toba is 30 ks away to the south. Sibayak duduk di tepi tepi kaldera. Singkut memiliki geografis yang sangat sedikit studi. Toba sebesar 30 ks pergi ke selatan. Don't worry about Toba. Most recent quakes including the 2004 and 2005 events have been taking place on the off shore Sunda fault line. Jangan khawatir tentang Toba. Gempa terakhir Paling termasuk peristiwa 2004 dan 2005 telah terjadi di garis patahan lepas pantai Sunda. There have been 2 - 3 mag 5 events along this fault per month for years. Sinabung, Toba, Singkut and Kembar lie east of the Great Sumatera Fault. Ada 2-3 mag 5 kegiatan bersama ini kesalahan per bulan selama bertahun-tahun,. Sinabung Toba, Singkut dan kembar terletak sebelah timur Great Sumatera Fault. The Great Sumatera Fault lies east of the Sunda Fault. The Great Sesar Sumatera terletak di sebelah timur Sesar Sunda. There have only been a few above Mag 5 events on the Great Sumatera fault in recent months. I can tell you that Mag 5 and above quakes on the Sunda fault in the Nias, Mentawi area certainly shake the Kabanjahe, Sinabung and Medan area. During the May 2005 Nias quake, Medan 200 ks east was rocking and rolling like the ocean. Another anecdote. Hanya ada sedikit di atas 5 Mag kegiatan untuk kesalahan Sumatera Besar dalam beberapa bulan terakhir bisa. Aku berkata kepadamu bahwa Mag 5 dan di atas gempa pada kesalahan Sunda di Nias, Mentawi tentu mengguncang daerah Kabanjahe, Sinabung dan area Medan. Selama yang Mei 2005 gempa Nias, Medan 200 ks timur bergoyang dan berguling seperti lautan. anekdot lain. A friend of mine was a seismologist for a major oil exploration company. Seorang teman saya adalah seorang ahli gempa untuk sebuah perusahaan eksplorasi minyak utama. The company were doing a survey (oil related) 25 years ago in the adjacent North Sumateran areas. Perusahaan melakukan survei (minyak terkait) 25 tahun yang lalu di daerah sekitarnya Sumatera Utara. My friend used 96 geophones for the exploratory work. Teman saya digunakan 96 geophone untuk pekerjaan eksplorasi. Even then he mentioned that was a huge amount of noise in his geophones from tectonic and magma shift. Bahkan kemudian dia menyebutkan bahwa itu sejumlah besar kebisingan di geophone dari tektonik dan pergeseran magma.
Henrik Le Bon on September 8, 2010, 5:07 AM Henrik Le Bon pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 05:07
Thank you Les! Terima kasih Les! With that information I think we can lay the "Toba-mongering" to rest and most likely any "Singkut-mongering" too. Dengan informasi yang saya pikir kita bisa meletakkan "Toba-mongering" untuk beristirahat dan kemungkinan besar ada "Singkut-mongering" juga. Let's hope that the similarities with Pinatubo stop at "long-dormant", as indeed seems likely to judge by the dissimilarities. Mari kita berharap bahwa kemiripan dengan Pinatubo berhenti di "" lama tidur, karena memang tampaknya akan menilai oleh dissimilarities.
William M Boston on September 8, 2010, 5:41 AM William M Boston pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 05:41
@peter m. @ Peter m. van rooij re September 7, 2010, 12:39 PM @Erik :: Good paper on 'Distribution of Magma Beneath the Toba Caldera Complex ...' :: Bottom line: under the dome is 1000 cu km of magma at shallow depth, of less than 10 km, with possibly an additional connected reservoir below that, and then with root system feeding down to upper mantle. van Rooij kembali September 7, 2010, 12:39 @ Erik:: kertas Bagus 'Distribusi Magma Di bawah Kaldera Toba Kompleks ...' : Bottom line:: di bawah kubah adalah 1000 km cu magma pada kedalaman dangkal, kurang dari 10 km, dengan kemungkinan reservoir terhubung tambahan di bawah, dan kemudian makan dengan sistem akar ke bagian atas mantel. In addition, at the northern end of the caldera is a smaller magma reservoir which is unconnected with the large, 1000 cu km, reservoir beneath the dome. Selain itu, di ujung utara kaldera adalah sebuah waduk magma lebih kecil yang tidak berhubungan dengan reservoir besar 1000 km cu, di bawah kubah. So the caldera is a "caldera complex" with separate magmatic and volcanic systems within it. Jadi kaldera adalah "kaldera kompleks" dengan sistem terpisah magmatik dan volkanik di dalamnya. Interestingly, the evidence is that the large, southern, 1000 cu km magma reservoir under the dome may be connected to the Pusubukit volcano, which is outside the caldera, to the west of the dome. Menariknya, bukti adalah bahwa, besar selatan, 1000 cu km magma reservoir di bawah kubah dapat dihubungkan ke Pusubukit gunung berapi, yang berada di luar kaldera, sebelah barat kubah. :: Best graph: Toba Caldera Complex :: Best grafik: Toba Kaldera Kompleks
Renato Rio on September 8, 2010, 5:46 AM Renato Rio pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 05:46
@LES @Henrik: I hope from all my heart you guys are right. LES @ @ Henrik: Saya berharap dari semua hatiku kalian benar. And that these events at the region will have no further consequences other than bringing more funding and governmental attention for the region. Dan bahwa peristiwa-peristiwa di kawasan ini tidak akan memiliki konsekuensi lebih lanjut selain membawa lebih banyak dana dan perhatian pemerintah untuk daerah. Even though nothing may happen any soon, we need to better understand this area that has a nasty potential for future dangerous volcanic issues. Meskipun tidak mungkin terjadi apapun segera, kita perlu lebih memahami daerah yang memiliki potensi yang buruk untuk masa depan masalah vulkanik berbahaya.
Matt P on September 8, 2010, 8:10 AM Matt P pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 08:10
I read something recently that maybe would help determine what could happen at Sinabung – google: "Computer simulation of time-dependent magma ascent processes involving bubbly and gassy flows" Yoshiaki Ida 2010. Saya membaca sesuatu yang baru-baru ini yang mungkin akan membantu menentukan apa yang akan terjadi di Gunung Sinabung - google: "simulasi komputer terhadap pendakian magma bergantung waktu proses yang melibatkan berbuih dan mengandung gas arus" Ida Yoshiaki 2010. If you have a journal subscription. Jika Anda memiliki langganan jurnal. My reading of it is that for a volcanic system the main factor in determining if an eruption will be effusive or explosive is a degassing factor, "which is proportional to the permeability and viscosity of the magma", rather than just the size, pressure and temperature of the magma chamber. saya membaca itu adalah bahwa untuk sistem vulkanik faktor utama dalam menentukan apakah letusan akan berlebihan atau bahan peledak adalah faktor degassing, "yang sebanding dengan permeabilitas dan viskositas dari" magma, bukan hanya ukuran, tekanan dan suhu ruang magma. From what I gather a reasonable estimate for scenarios of the Sinabung eruption could be made by gas sampling and previous lava flow petrology using the model developed, although the less known about the volcano the more that would have to be assumed. Dari apa yang saya mengumpulkan perkiraan yang wajar untuk skenario dari letusan Gunung Sinabung bisa dilakukan dengan sampling gas dan lava petrologi aliran sebelumnya yang menggunakan model yang dikembangkan, walaupun kurang dikenal tentang gunung berapi semakin yang harus diasumsikan. Also, a different type of lava could be erupted from what has come before. Selain itu, berbagai jenis lava dapat meletus dari apa yang telah datang sebelumnya. Looking at the videos the main vent appears to be comparatively small and at an angle which may be causing elevated restriction in the conduit. PS Raving I would have $10 on Etna at those odds, 28/1 Melihat video lubang utama tampaknya relatif kecil dan pada sudut yang mungkin menyebabkan pembatasan meningkat pada saluran yang Raving. PS saya akan memiliki $ 10 pada Etna pada saat-peluang, 28 / 1
Paul Messenger on September 8, 2010, 9:32 AM Paulus Messenger pada tanggal 8 September 2010, 09:32
I can see this going off like Mt St Helens. Aku dapat melihat ini pergi seperti Gunung St Helens. It would be impressive to see a Toba style eruption albeit probably the last eruption most of us would see ! Akan mengesankan untuk melihat gaya letusan Toba meskipun mungkin terakhir letusan sebagian besar dari kita akan melihat! Having to documentation, we are in no position to start guessing about what will happen next, apart from basing our guesses on other stratovolcanoes. Memiliki dokumentasi, kita tidak berada dalam posisi untuk mulai menebak tentang apa yang akan terjadi selanjutnya, selain mendasarkan dugaan kami pada stratovolcanoes lainnya.
Renato Rio on September 8, 2010, 3:53 PM Renato Rio pada tanggal 8 September 2010,, 15:53
"For the sixth time Sinabung erupted on Tuesday (7 / 9) at dawn. The eruption was more violent than before, because it issued a stinging tebul smoke and volcanic ash up to a radius of 8 km."------------------ http://www.waspada.co.id/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=142241:pengungsi-sinabung-masih-takut-pulang&catid=15:sumut&Itemid=28 "Untuk keenam kalinya Sinabung meletus pada hari Selasa (7 / 9) subuh. Letusan itu lebih keras daripada sebelumnya, karena mengeluarkan asap tebul menyengat dan abu vulkanik hingga radius 8 km ."------ ------------ http://www.waspada.co.id/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=142241:pengungsi-sinabung-masih-takut-pulang&catid=15:sumut&Itemid = 28
Renato Rio on September 8, 2010, 4:25 PM Renato Rio pada tanggal 8 September 2010,, 04:25
Sorry for the repeated news, but I'm getting a little confused over translations from different sources. Maaf untuk berita ulang, tapi aku mulai agak bingung atas terjemahan dari sumber yang berbeda. Some say there were five eruptive events, others, six. Ada yang mengatakan ada lima peristiwa erupsi, orang lain, enam. Whatever the number, this is leading to no good outcomes, I guess.------------------------------------------------ @Matt P: Very interesting article. Apa pun jumlahnya, ini menyebabkan tidak ada hasil yang baik, saya kira .----------------------------------- ------------- @ Matt P: Sangat artikel menarik. Just read the abstract and I don't think I would grasp more from the whole content than what you have already explained. Hanya membaca abstrak dan Saya tidak berpikir saya akan menangkap lebih dari seluruh isi dari apa yang telah dijelaskan. If I got it right, since Sinabung is showing intensive degassing, we should expect a lowering of pressure in the chamber leading to a more explosive eruption? Jika aku benar, karena Sinabung menunjukkan degassing intensif, kita harus mengharapkan penurunan tekanan di dalam ruang yang mengarah ke letusan lebih eksplosif? Actually, I can't tell, but for the news, whether the levels of gases released are above the "threshold" pointed in the article, but increasing intensities of new eruptions may be telling something. Sebenarnya, aku tidak bisa kirim, tapi untuk berita, apakah tingkat gas dirilis di atas ambang batas "" kata dalam artikel, tapi meningkatnya intensitas letusan baru mungkin mengatakan sesuatu. Although the volcano's history points to a more effusive type of eruption. Meskipun sejarah gunung berapi menunjukkan jenis lebih dari letusan efusif. We have to wait and see... Kita harus menunggu dan melihat ...
Raving on September 8, 2010, 4:26 PM Raving pada tanggal 8 September 2010,, 04:26
The eruption of Mount. Letusan Gunung. Sinabung triggered a "Paddy" payout . Sinabung memicu "Paddy" pembayaran . // Keep hearing about the Toba eruption almost wiping out humanity. / / Simpan mendengar tentang letusan Toba hampir memusnahkan kemanusiaan. It might be a fun/fanciful idea but it doesn't seem plausible. Mungkin menyenangkan / ide aneh tapi tampaknya tidak masuk akal. If humanity were brought so close to the edge then one might expect a large percentage of other species to have been carried over the adsorbing limit and on through to extinction. Moreover, as big as the Toba eruption was, it is difficult to assume that it was a cardinally momentous calamity. Just as there are a large number of unnoticed volcanoes pimpling the earth, so too are large number of inconspicuous, super sized calderas. Intuition would suggest that equivalent calamities have occurred many times over. // So where does all this put the 'science' and evidence for the Toba eruption? I don't know. Saya tidak tahu. Yet the more I play with it at the back of my mind, the less satisfied I feel with the Toba catastrophe suggestion, the less satisfied I feel about unprecedented peculiarity of AGW. ... ... // There seem to be huge independent factors involved that are ignored. a) CO2 is a biologically active component which could be envisioned as being at much higher concentration than then trace amount present today. b) H2O seems to play a large role in tectonic process. It would seem that the mantle is a large reservoir of H2O saturated rock. How this water content of the mantle changes and how it alters the water available and subducted from the earth's surface might be predominant controlling factors. // Plate subduction at 7 cm per year ought to transport significant quantities of H2O into the earth's interior.
Renato Rio on September 8, 2010, 4:43 PM
@Raving: Have to leave now, but would like to join the discussion. Looks like Dr. Surono, head of PVMBG, is presently more concerned with water from above than from beneath. And I agree with you that the theories on Toba's "evolutionary bottleneck" need further evidence. Thanks. Terima kasih.
William M Boston on September 8, 2010, 6:45 PM
@raving I totally agree that the "Toba bottlneck" is highly questionable. My thought from the getgo was that it was an idea more motivated by attention-getting , papers, news articles and books rather than scientific facts and evidence.
mots fo on September 8, 2010, 7:27 PM
Paddy power???????? ok........... so how many here bet on the volcanoes? ((mots' eyes light up)).............. i'd take odds some of us here know enough to make a bet. ;) ........... Best!motsfo
Passerby on September 8, 2010, 7:34 PM
A recent study of deposits in Asia overlying the 'Toba ash' reported evidence of human habitation, suggesting that the worst case, severe depopulation, may not have occurred. I don't have the paper handy to cite it properly, but I think it was either Science or PNAS, 2009. --------- For anyone who wishes to see a recent Indonesia EQ history (variable time length of 24h-one year), please see the Indahnesia.com earthquake monitor website. Here is a listing of EQ since November 2009 for Aceh and NW Sulawesi region ---- http://indahnesia.com/earthquake/region/ACE/earthquakes_in_aceh.php
Lurking on September 8, 2010, 7:38 PM
Poking at it with a stick... ¶ According to Wackipedia: "The population of the Eastern African chimpanzee,[40] Bornean orangutan,[41] central Indian macaque[42] and all tigers,[43] and the separation of the nuclear gene pools of eastern and western lowland gorillas,[44] all recovered from very low numbers around 70,000–55,000 years ago." ¶ Cited References are rather lengthy and on the lower part of the article . ¶ Despite the pro-Toba crowd, I do have to wonder at the issue of the Neanderthals. They were apparently okay with the radical changes that occurred, still doing whatever it was that they did for 100,000 + years and kept on doing it after Toba went "pop." A resilient group those Neanderthals. ¶ I still believe that their genes are still alive and well in our genome.
mots fo on September 8, 2010, 7:57 PM
i'm sure we all know a few neanderthals...........;) Best!motsfo
Passerby on September 8, 2010, 8:43 PM
Early humans in India. ----www.hindustantimes.com/On-the-trail-of-volcano-ash/Article1-529751.aspx --- mtDNA (mitochondrial DNA) sequencing of modern Asians suggests migrations out of Africa took place between 55-65KYA. If such a migration occurred, with an estimated population of hundreds to thousands, it suggests that either humans recovered quickly from the 'bottleneck' in northern Africa (or the Levant, Middle East) or that the reduction in humans wasn't as profound as initially thought, post-Toba eruption 74-75 KYA.
Renato Rio on September 8, 2010, 10:02 PM
@Passerby: Just about in time you showed up! Thanks for the links. Terima kasih atas link. ¶-------------------------------------- @Mots FO: I'm sure I do know some... could never explain where my big forehead and jaws came from :)¶------------------------------------------------- I believe Science is still crawling to get a true picture of what evolution is all about. Back in the 70's I took a degree in Biology and at that time we hadn't dreamed of the Genome project. Ever since, Molecular Biology, with the rising support of the drug industry, seemed to fill all the blanks to explain evolution as in the meanwhile we still have not found the so called "missing link" for our own species. Of course, mass extinctions hypothesis provided a good source to explain "natural induced forward steps", but I think that, as for geological matters, we mortals are ready to accept any new evidence supporting theories that could respond for the big issues within our life timespan, but, concerning evolution, many new theories no longer support the exclusively genetic oriented path of evolution. Maybe we'll have to wait for more generations to come until we may get a better picture of the whole, and that includes cautious long term researches in ALL fields, including volcanism in space.
Renato Rio on September 8, 2010, 10:22 PM
@Passerby: Very interesting article on humans + Toba + India. ¶---------------------------------------------- As for their belief that "...a close study of the Toba eruption could help predict how human society might respond to large-scale climate changes in the future.", I have to say that, creating gods and devils out from ourselves, we humans have managed to evolve and replicate the tools that will help us go through such changes. What we, almighty, haven't managed yet is to deal, not with the natural disasters, but with those we create to our own species, which in turn has also managed to evolve towards creation and replication of pretty efficient tools to provide our quick extinction. Evolution? Poor Toba!
Shérine France on September 9, 2010, 2:09 AM
Hello Nice video at the beginning and things are complicated at the end. You can see a flow on the flank of the volcano and the ash plume. To see to the end. Sinabung
Lurking on September 9, 2010, 3:07 AM
@Renato Rio [10:22] Large caldera forming eruptions are not a rarity. We managed to get this far, and I am not that sure that all nuclear weapons going off would fully wipe us out. We might get down to that "Dawn of Man" scene in 2001, but survive is what we were designed to do. We might not even come out looking like hominids anymore, but survival as a species is the goal. No, what it will take to wipe us out is gonna have to be the same thing that wipes out most species that bite the big one... an unfortunate occurrence of near simultaneous catastrophes. You know, like a real pandemic and a large caldera event at the same time... or a large caldera event and an asteroid.... maybe a full on nuclear war for the final icing on the cake as every competes for whatever place is left that s worth living at. ¶ Since I am fully OT... here's a video clip that is ... well, sort of eye opening. It's a top down view of the inner solar system with the various asteroids and minor planets added as they are discovered. The time frame is from 1980 - 2010. It gets crowded.
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 4:54 AM
@LURKING: the neanderthals struggled with the adaption from cold to less cold... @ Mengintai: Neanderthals berjuang dengan adaptasi dari dingin menjadi kurang dingin ... so to them the Toba incident with temperature plummeting, was in at least in that regard rather easy to cope with... not so for the other humanoids... // ... after the Toba incident, a new "out of africa" exodus happened... and when these modern people wandered into the middle east the met the neanderthals... and interbred with them... the split in three main directions... west into europe... east... along the southern route... and east along the northern route... and on to the americas.... // ... today between 1 and 4 percent of the genomes of non-africans is derived from neanderthals.... clearly detectable in the descendants of homo sapiens that went westward into europe... much, much less so for the south-east wanderers... but most detectable in the descendants of the north-east group... resulting in the clovis people... // ... read more in this article on science daily ... as a curiosity... this was actually predicted by a guy from sweden, who has a theory about the neanderthals... and autism... // ... see his blog for more info ... // ... so you are right when you state: "I still believe that their genes are still alive and well in our genome."
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 5:23 AM
@WILLIAM M BOSTON on September 8, 2010, 5:41 AM: compare this graph from the same publication you refer to, to this picture from the youtube documentary ... and look carefully at the green dots in the graph... they align very, very neatly with the feeding-geometry underneath Toba... so... jadi ... this tells me that the 3D pictures form the documentary are for real... and that there is a HUGE magma reserve under the north part of Lake Toba and stretching even farther north... meaning that the original MTTs "hotspot" is now more to the north than it originaly was 500Kya, due to the plates southwards motion... by how much? 20 Km? and how far is that then form Sinabung? less then 20 km.... and just beneath the surface......... interesting. menarik. not? ... ... // ... that's why i asked how it would look today, nearly ten years after these graphs and 3D display... not in the sense that i expect the magma volumes under Toba to be larger... but in the sense that much more data is (or should be!) available, to see more details on how this system is connected. the plots LURKING is showing us are amazing! such plots should be available from the Toba area also by now... but i understand that LURKING is frustrated by not being able to find the EQ data he need to make such a plot... in the same way they used EQ data to make the 3D model as shown in the documentary... and in the graph from the publication from 2000/2001. ... ... // ... but... tapi ... since Sinabung area isn't monitored (much), it may not be possible to make a detailed plot how it could be connected (or not). ... ... // ... LES FRANCIS on September 8, 2010, 3:36 AM wrote: "There has been no significant ground deformation around Sinabung. There are more than 30,000 people living within 6 kilometers of the cone and they would have noticed. The area is extensively cultivated. The Indonesian VSI were notified of volcanic tremor by the local farmers around living around the cone. ... // ... i emphasized the word "would" ... because my skeptical question is: did they?
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 5:26 AM
@HENRIK LE BON on September 8, 2010, 5:07 AM "Thank you Les! With that information I think we can lay the "Toba-mongering" to rest" ... // ... sorry... maaf ... not yet! :-) :-)
Renato Rio on September 9, 2010, 6:23 AM
PETER M. VAN ROOIJ: Thanks for the article on Neanderthals. "How these peoples would have interacted culturally is not something we can speculate on in any meaningful way. But knowing there was gene flow is important, and it is fascinating to think about how that may have happened,..." Very interesting, indeed. Specially now, that science has begun to speculate that inheritance is not only genetically determined. Epigenetic inheritance, memetics, cultural transmission and specially, symbolic inheritance, which is unique to humans, may provide evidence that Neanderthals inheritance might be present among us in many other ways. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Jablonka¶-------------------------------------------------------------------------- @Lurking: I hope you are right about the survival of our species. What will become of us after survival, or, in what kind of "weirdos" we will be transformed, that is my big issue. I kind of agree when S. Hawkins talks about us exterminating our future. Maybe will still be "there", but, how?¶ BTW: The data that Passerby provided couldn't help at your plots? -------------------------------- @Peter again: I'm not done with Toba/Sinabung yet. We know so little about the geological and petrographical features there, that maybe it is too soon to assume that they aren't any way related. Though I think there is no reason to believe that present Sinabung awakening is no proof of such a link.¶ Thank you guys.
Les Francis on September 9, 2010, 6:26 AM
There are dormant domes between Toba and Sinabung. There is a crater at the north end of Toba.This crater is a result of eruption in the last 10,000 years Here's me standing in it Here's a scale map I've tried posting before. Hopefully this comes out
Les Francis on September 9, 2010, 6:41 AM
Try again for an image of the crater at the North of Toba. North Toba lake (Tongking) is to the rear of me
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 7:19 AM
nice pic, Les! you were really blending in with the locals! :-) ... :-) ... // ... on topic: i know of those craters and volcanos... one of them (can remember the name) is sitting directly on top of this huge chamber... and hasn't erupted for how long? ... ... // ... i made a quick pic with some markings. the red rings are volcanoes (or could be volcanoes) and the yellow circle is the magma chamber according to the 3D model as shown in the youtube documentary... // ... if Sinabung in some way has a connection/influence... it could/might awaken the neighbors and start a little party.... that could last for a rather long time...
Daniel Verhoef on September 9, 2010, 7:53 AM
Hello everyone, i have been following the lively discussions on the Eruptions blog for some time now. Like many others here im a real vulcanophile, i just cant get enough of the destructive beauty of vulcanoes. I have read every single comment on this blog about Sinabung's revival, this vulcano is exciting! I have done some research on Sinabung and found a cam! You can find it on: http://www.merapi.bgl.esdm.go.id/aktivitas_merapi.php?page=aktivitas-merapi&subpage=kamera-g-sinabung Click on the 'eye-icon' on the geographical map to look at Sinabung real time. Besides the cam i've been looking at the 6 hourly reports from the Centre of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation http://portal.vsi.esdm.go.id/joomla/ on the status of the mountain using google translate. The reports continuously state that the body of Sinabung is inflating since they began monitoring, although not at a dramatic rate. Volcanic earthquakes have been rather constant in number, but this morning the report stated: At 00-06 pm: volcanic earthquake recorded 36 times, two times and one time earthquake Tectonic Blowing Away. Google translate had mangled this part so i dont know what the "two times and one time earthquake Tectonic Blowing Away" part is about, but it seems ugly though. Like everyone here i'm wondering what type of Eruption Sinabung might have. I tend to agree with Mike Don comment made on September 7, 2010, 4:29 PM; Sinabung's past shows signs of effusive eruption. On top of that, most violent volcanoes have a violent past, but do they all start out violent? Wouldn't it be plausible that Sinabung has concluded its cone building stage, and is now entering a more violent eruptive cycle after dormancy? That would be my best guess anyway.
Les Francis on September 9, 2010, 8:04 AM
This image of Sinabung was taken from the side of a dormant dome. There are at least a dozen dormant domes you can see from this very spot - apart from active Sibayak. Sinabung There are dozens of dormant domes between Tongking and Berastagi. Many of them would be directly over your magma chamber.
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 8:32 AM
@LES FRANCIS on September 9, 2010, 8:04 AM: There are dozens of dormant domes between Tongking and Berastagi. Many of them would be directly over your magma chamber. ... // ... i know... and that's why i am worried... not for another Toba event... but the whole area coming alive... for many years to come. ... ... // ... wonderful picture of Sinabung! it must be strange to have visited this area and relate to what is going on right now! ... ... // ... @DANIEL VERHOEF on September 9, 2010, 7:53 AM: thnak you for the links... especially for the webcam link!! i think many will appreciate that! maybe ERIK can find a little script that refreshes the pic from the site automatically and then post it on this blog somewhere? it refreshes on the server rather fast! and maybe instead of deep-linking, making a copy to this server first, before serving it to the people ... // ... here is the direct link to the webcam pic: http://www.merapi.bgl.esdm.go.id/view.php?id=65&784
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 8:40 AM
DANIEL VERHOEF on September 9, 2010, 7:53 AM wrote: "The reports continuously state that the body of Sinabung is inflating since they began monitoring, although not at a dramatic rate." ... // ... and... dan ... // ... LES FRANCIS on September 8, 2010, 3:36 AM wrote: "There has been no significant ground deformation around Sinabung. There are more than 30,000 people living within 6 kilometers of the cone and they would have noticed. The area is extensively cultivated. The Indonesian VSI were notified of volcanic tremor by the local farmers around living around the cone. ... // ... i emphasized the word "would"... // ... well... my skeptical question remains: did they? or not? or not sufficient? or at all? ;-) ... // ... i think we can't assume anything in this case... it becomes more and more clear to me that everyone is caught by surprise and now are baffled by what is happening in front of them... having no clue to go by... reason to reasonable worrying.
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 8:52 AM
BTW... BTW ... i read a rapport about the area around Sinabung (Karo and Aceh etc.)... about the water management of these districts... and that it has been growing problematic for some years in the Sinabung and Sibayak areas and to the north... but now they have coined a plan for most of the area... // ... could this have been due to the area rising slowly without the locals noticing, because the whole area rises... a huge area at once, so everything looks perfectly normal relative to what i looks like normally? do these people notice that they travel 2.7 cm southwards every year? no, they don't. so... jadi ... do they notice that they travel upwards with XX cm a year???? how many cubic Kms can accumulate in this vast area if it rises only a few cm's a year..... in... masuk .. lets pick a number... say... mengatakan ... 400 years?
Jeb on September 9, 2010, 9:21 AM
Lurking on September 9, 2010, 3:07 AM Do we really need to talk about extinction events to be concerned? I don't gamble, but what are the odds for a 1452 (Kuwae), 1601 (Huaynaputina) or 1816 (Tambora) within twenty years? To ba or not To ba... ;) How would modern society deal with such an event? So, please keep on mongering! ;) ;)
Lurking on September 9, 2010, 9:35 AM
Well, we never noticed Yellowstone's movement until someone noticed that a lake was moving around. Now that it has our attention we notice that Yellowstone moves around quite a bit. Mt St Helens was noticed after it developed that ugly boil on one side of the upper flank. It would be nice if someone had run an INSAR pass over the area to get an accurate look at the ground deformation. My guess is no, but if it had been done, the data is probably squirreled away along with the sub mag 4.5 earthquake lists. ¶ Solutrean → Clovis
Lurking on September 9, 2010, 9:55 AM
@Jeb [9:21 AM] I'm sort of on the side of the Non-Extinction Level Event. However my confidence in the ability of humans to gracefully deal with catastrophes is not very high. Overall, when you look at the scale of what can happen, as evidenced from past events in the geological record, you realize that there is not one thing that humans can do to stop it. All we can do is scurry away, the same thing we have always done. A modern Carrington Event could put us back to pre 1900's level technology in a matter of seconds. (massive solar storm), so I don't have a whole lot of faith in the ability of technology to save us. Where technology is good, is in spotting the hazard. That is where we have the edge over the competitors. We can see it coming... as long as we open our eyes and pay attention.
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 10:03 AM
ah! LURKING is a lurker AND a connoisseur! you even knew about the re-link between the two peoples... hats off! ... ... // ... good you mentioned the Yellowstone and Mt St Helens... thanks! terima kasih!
Henrik Le Bon on September 9, 2010, 10:11 AM
Sorry to be a boring old f... but. tapi. When we speculate on what could conceivably happen or not happen, we have to keep in mind that journalists looking for a story or an angle do read this blog. At one point during the Eyjafjallajökull vigil, there were a few stories where the journalists had picked their information from blog entries. Recognising your own words taken out of context as "proof" in an article that is intended to titilate is a... erm..., weird experience. So please, keep in mind that our speculations could be used for a purpose and with a result none of us imagined when we wrote them. Not everyone is honest and responsible...
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 10:32 AM
@HENRIK LE BON on September 9, 2010, 10:11 AM: you have a point... on the other hand... di sisi lain ... wouldn't wild speculations by a lesser intelligent journalist spin off a lot fundings... fast? no, seriously: what can one do about it? are we supposed to keep out hypothetic thoughts to our selves and wait if they hold up, and then come out of our shelters and say: "i was actually thinking that this would happen...." only to be looked upon as if one is convicted as being guilty of the whole affair? ... ... // ... just stumbled upon a website about Toba and the bottleneck ... explaining why maybe not all species suffered the same fate... although is was written before evidence this year showed that neanderthals and homo sapiens did cross-breed ... resulting in 1-4% neanderthal genes in all non-africans today...
Jeb on September 9, 2010, 11:08 AM
You all have good points. A thought about funding... Since my interest in astronomy was the thing that got me back on the ground and interested in volcanoes; I think Nasa's NEO Program was estimated to cost up towards 400 million dollars... Wouldn't that sum be a nice contribution to volcanology? ;) ;)
Lurking on September 9, 2010, 11:17 AM
Aqualung my friend, don't start away uneasy, you poor old sod, you see, it's only me. ¶ Sensationalist journalism would be better served by some of the loon sites. The problem is that Eruptions lends and air of credibility due to the profession of some of our posters. Me, I plot stuff for no reason other than to look at it. On my day job I silently curse end users and fix what they break. But that's when I'm not vociferously cursing my tomatoes, and lamenting that nineteen plants produced one tomato. No, not insects, not squirrels, not birds. One single, solitary tomato. For this I blame the County Commissioners. If they hadn't let their air conditioning unit get stolen I might have had a tomato crop. (If you can wrap your head around that logic I applaud you)
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 11:35 AM
Do you still remember, December's foggy freeze, when the ice that clings on to your beard is screaming agony. ... // ... one tomato is bad. are you gonna eat it?
Lurking on September 9, 2010, 11:49 AM
Ummm.. Mmmm .. no. tidak ada. I'm still ponding which politician to throw it at. ¶ Back on that "loon" concept. There is a thought among that mindset that there will be 6 magnitude 8+ quakes this year. We've had one. If you take the data back to 1973, it turns out that in order for this to occur, you will have to have a 4 sigma event. In other words... way up there in odds. But that doesn't mean it can't occur. Just that it is about as likely as me getting a second tomato from my plants.
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 12:14 PM
well... baik ... december is coming up soon again... so depending if you live north or south on this planet, chances for a single 8+ event could be bigger than another tomato on your nineteen plants... maybe someone should throw that at a politician somewhere... then you can enjoy your tomato yourself.
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 12:26 PM
a sigma-4 event isn't that wild... that is 1 in 15,787 or... every 43 years ... and that is regarded as twice in a lifetime.... so odds are good... a new tomato will grow... someday... maybe even soon.
Henrik Le Bon on September 9, 2010, 2:02 PM
Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against speculation. As a matter of fact, speculation is one of the tools the human animal employs to gain new knowledge and insights "from cradle to grave". It's also an integral part of the scientific process. But there are dangers as can be exemplified by the "Katla-mongering": // Before the Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, even eminently reputable sites such as Norvol contributed to the idea that an eruption of Eyjafjallajökull would axiomatically be followed by a very large eruption of Katla (Sturkell & al uses phrases such as "twin volcanoes" and "(Eyjafjalla) eruptions... ...occurring in tandem with Katla eruptions" http://www2.norvol.hi.is/Apps/WebObjects/HI.woa/swdocument/1015721/Sturkell_etal_2009b.pdf). // The collective digging of this community, using Dr Klemetti's adage correlation is not causation as our "leitmotif" eventually resulted in a much more balanced view being accepted by most of us - but not before some of our speculations had been used as "proof" that Katla was soon to erupt, cataclysmically. // The bottom line is that people who WANT to believe in Harmageddon WILL cut and paste anything they can lay their mitts on as "proof" of Doomsday with themselves cast in the role of the misunderstood genius who saw it coming, or that of the intrepid journalist "who dug out the Truth scientists tried to hide". // Another aspect is that some locals not reassured by the "scant" information made public, might look about in order to find out what is in store for them and misinterpret our speculations as knowledge or proof that they are about to be wiped out while we sit far away conjuring up even more wonderful scenarios of ultimate destruction.
peter m. van rooij on September 9, 2010, 2:02 PM
i was reading a bit about the volcanoes on top of the huge chamber in the north of Lake Toba... it is not easy to find anything... but... tapi ... i found a name of one of them... and wikipedia only knows this fact: "There are at least four cones, four stratovolcanoes and three craters visible in the lake. The Tandukbenua cone on the NW edge of the caldera is relatively lacking in vegetation, suggesting a young age of only several hundred years. ... // ... according to this site Tandukbenua is 1860+ meters high.. that is (i guess) appr 860 meters above the plane......... and only "only several hundred years" old? interesting....
Lurking on September 9, 2010, 7:28 PM
Well, we did the 3 sigma in 2007... and it's only based off of 36 years of data... some of which may be dubious. (older years). ¶ About those politicians. Yesterday, I was at the county Admin building over in the next county where I noticed that the Air Conditioning was missing. A worker there mentioned that the copper had been stolen and that they expected a 3 month wait to get it repaired/replaced. Today, same building... crane dropping new units in place. So... Jadi ... three months = a day when it comes to the government. Nice. Nice.
Renato Rio on September 10, 2010, 12:20 AM
@Lurking: thought this kind of thing happened only in my country. Actually, it takes longer. Comforting, uh?
Lurking on September 10, 2010, 1:47 AM
@Renato Rio: Actually, it's quite normal here. About 3 years ago a thief managed to tangle with the mains in a power substation here in town... trying to steal copper. They had a good set of prints since his palm prints were scorched into one of the transformer housings. Somehow, he survived. They found him a couple of states away trying to get medical care. Not only do we have thieves, but we have full on stupid thieves. In South Florida, two guys broke into a house and held the owner at knife and gunpoint, only taking an ordinary run of the mill eggbeater . (Link provided to assist in translation). Here we have a 10-20-Life law when it comes to firearms brandished or used in a robbery. When they caught them, they still had the eggbeater. Go figure. Coba bayangkan.
Henrik Le Bon on September 10, 2010, 2:23 AM
Lurking, Renato - are you familiar with "Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy"? Look at that from a slightly different angle and you'll understand why it only takes a day to replace such "vital" equipment. Take it a bit further, and you see it applies to most human institutions. Now take a look at a Bell curve distribution diagram, and you come face to face with one of humanity's greatest challenges - stupid people (defined as people whose gifts are not commesurate with the demands of the organisation on the positions occupied by them) will eventually pollute every organisation to the point where the organisation ceases to fulfil the purpose for which it was created but rather perpetuate the ambitions of the less gifted. We're doomed... ;) ;)
peter m. van rooij on September 10, 2010, 5:30 AM
it works like this: watch the "Idiocracy" intro on YouTube ... // ... sound seems to lag a little behind.. but you'll get the picture... ;-) ;-)
Lurking on September 10, 2010, 10:33 AM
Idiocracy... Idiocracy ... though a comedy, carries an uneasy thread of truth. You have to wonder how much excess (mental) capacity humankind has to overcome the effect. Sure, we make advances, but what about the populace as a whole? What about the general trend? Thilo Sarrazin has generated a bit-o-controversy with his book "Germany Does Itself In," but is it a pragmatic look at what is not a PC subject? Is that why TPB are ticked off? Enquiring Minds want to Know {tag line from the National Enquirer... one of the [Name] is Pregnant with an Alien Baby publications}
Renato Rio on September 13, 2010, 1:44 PM
Sorry. Maaf. Missed the interesting discussion when I moved to the other threads. What a pity. "Idiocracy" (LOL) - I'll have this video translated. It's polls time in Brazil, maybe a good teaser for the occasion. Thanks, Peter and all.
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